Showing posts with label climate change. Show all posts
Showing posts with label climate change. Show all posts

Monday, October 30, 2023

When Greta Meets Reality

 Courtesy of Mad Mike via Tom Kratman


Thursday, December 6, 2012

Getting Better All On Our Own

There has been a modest amount of buzz about recent reports that the U.S. has reduced carbon emissions more than any other country.  I think it is important to keep in mind that we lead the world in carbon emissions.

At least until China catches up in a few years.

So it should be the easiest for us to make reductions.  Sort of like when an obese person goes on a diet.  Those first few pounds are pretty easy to lose.

Most of the reductions came due to recent progress in natural gas mining and recovery.  Natural gas produces far less CO2 when compared with other fossil fuels.

Monday, June 11, 2012

Go South Young Man

In the "news you can use" category comes an assessment of energy consumption based on various regions of the United States.  Do you love Mother Earth?  Then perhaps you ought to be moving south!

Perhaps the blue model politicians whose tax and spend policies are driving businesses and residents out of their states are smarter than they look. They could be green activists, steadily working to save the earth by driving people out of the northeast. We look forward to green activists introducing legislation in Congress to levy new taxes on those whose choice to live in cold states imposes costs on the more virtuous and eco-friendly inhabitants of Texas and South Carolina.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Climate Change - Microdata Edition

The news has been filled with reports about how March 2012 was the warmest on record since 1895 or some such thing.

For the record.  It is snowing in southern Michigan right now.  At noon.  Our long term average high is north of 50 degrees F.

And it is snowing in southern Michigan right now.  Brrrrrrr!!

Also for the record, I don't think an April snow indicates anything further than the current temperature.  It certainly is not enough of a trend upon which one might hang their scientific hat.  But I think the same thing about our admittedly warmer than usual March, too.

Friday, December 2, 2011

Carbon Dioxide May Not Have As Much Influence As Originally Thought

You don't say.

The climate may be less sensitive to carbon dioxide than we thought – and temperature rises this century could be smaller than expected. That's the surprise result of a new analysis of the last ice age. However, the finding comes from considering just one climate model, and unless it can be replicated using other models, researchers are dubious that it is genuine.
Folks, the science, she ain't settled. Ignore the charlatans masquerading as scientists that suggest otherwise.

Friday, August 26, 2011

We Learned Something New

It is no large secret that I am a skeptic regarding the theory that human activity is the sole/primary/major force behind the changes in our climate over the last 150 years. 

Any fool looking at the data can see that things have gotten warmer over that time frame.  What few elect to recall is that a miniature ice age that correlates with the Maunder Minimum ended about 150 years ago.  In reality, we have been warming from an unusually cold condition back towards a more usual climate.

In any case, one of the primary reasons for my skepticism is the non-scientific manner used to express theories concerning the influence of human activity in that general warming trend.  The science of those theories has been "settled".  Or so they tell us.

But that isn't science.  Scientific theories take not just decades, but often centuries before we know enough to call them anything close to "settled".

Albert Einstein presented his general theory of relativity in 1916.  Since then there have been many discoveries and refinements.  There continue to be hypotheses about exceptions to Mr. Einstein's theory that have yet to be proved or disproved.  It may take a while before we know all we can know about the implications of the theory of relativity.

Sir Isaac Newton presented his theory of gravity in PhilosophiƦ Naturalis Principia Mathematica which was published in 1687.  It wasn't until 350 years later that we began to understand that gravity throughout the universe was not constant.  And it took almost another 50 years before that understanding was fully developed.

So what is new in the field of climatology?  We have a report from CERN regarding the link between cosmic rays emanating from the sun being closely tied with the formation of clouds in the atmosphere.

Another source of my skepticism is the rather simplistic manner in which some individuals have presumed a direct, primary, causal relationship between CO2 and climate change to the near total exclusion of other reasonable factors.  It is my opinion that solar forcings have been understated in climate models in favor of anthropogenicy.  The one true fact is that we do not know what we know.  We do not know what we do not know either.  We do not fully understand all of the intricacies associated with how the climate changes over time.

We have learned a few things over the years.  And we are developing a better understanding of the various factors involved in our climate.  Responsible scientists qualify their remarks to point out the wide range of predicted future temperatures.  They also suggest that there are significant factors beyond human activity that are at work.

As we move forward, I am confident that our understanding will be revised and refined again and again.  My opinion is that along with learning more about our climate, we will probably discover that we have an over-sized collective ego.  The earth has been around for a very long time.  While humanity is able to affect significant micro-scale changes, our impact on something as massive and complicated as the atmosphere is less significant than some alarmist pseudo-scientists would have us believe.

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Albert Gore Jr. - Hypocrite

Questionable science aside, my first objection to proposed carbon emission limitations, and other "global warming" associated policies is the behavior of those that stridently urge those policy changes.


But you cannot be a leading environmentalist who hopes to lead the general public into a long and difficult struggle for sacrifice and fundamental change if your own conduct is so flagrantly inconsistent with the green gospel you profess.  If the heart of your message is that the peril of climate change is so imminent and so overwhelming that the entire political and social system of the world must change, now, you cannot fly on private jets.  You cannot own multiple mansions.  You cannot even become enormously rich investing in companies that will profit if the policies you advocate are put into place.

It is not enough to buy carbon offsets (aka “indulgences”) with your vast wealth, not enough to power your luxurious mansions with exotic low impact energy sources the average person could not afford, not enough to argue that you only needed the jet so that you could promote your earth-saving film.

You are asking billions of people, the overwhelming majority of whom lack many of the basic life amenities you take for granted, people who can’t afford Whole Foods environmentalism, to slash their meager living standards.  You may well be right, and those changes may be necessary — the more shame on you that with your superior insight and knowledge you refuse to live a modest life.  There’s a gospel hymn some people in Tennessee still sing that makes the point:  “You can’t be a beacon if your light don’t shine.”

St. Francis of Assisi understood the point well.  Taken by the Pope on a tour to see the treasures of the Vatican, St. Francis was notably unimpressed.  “Peter can no longer say, ‘silver and gold have I none,’” smiled the Pontiff, referring to the story in the Book of Acts that recounts what St. Peter said to a crippled beggar asking him for alms.

“Neither can he say, ‘rise up and walk.’” replied St. Francis — quoting what St. Peter said as he miraculously cured the beggar of his affliction.
You can sit on ivory chairs with kings in their halls of gold, participating in the world of politics as usual, or you can live with the prophets and visionaries in the wilderness, voices of a greater truth and higher meaning that challenge the smug certainties and false assumptions of the comfortable, business as usual elites.  You cannot do both.

Al Gore cannot say “silver and gold have I none and no excess carbon do I spew,” and neither can he say to the paralyzed global green movement “rise up and walk.”  He speaks, he writes, he speaks again, and the movement lies on the ground, crippled and inert.

...

What this tells the skeptics is that Vice President Gore doesn’t really believe the gospel he proclaims.  That profits from his environmental advocacy enable his affluent lifestyle only deepens their skepticism of the messenger and therefore of the message.  And when they see that the rest of the environmental movement accepts this flagrant contradiction, they conclude, naturally enough, that the other green leaders aren’t as worried as they claim to be.  Al Gore’s lifestyle is a test case for the credibility of his gospel — and it fails. The tolerance of Al Gore’s lifestyle by the environmental leadership is a further test — and that test, too, the greens fail.


The average citizen is all too likely to conclude that if Mr. Gore can keep his lifestyle, the average American family can keep its SUV and incandescent bulbs.  If Gore can take a charter flight, I don’t have to take the bus.  If Gore can have many mansions, I can use the old fashioned kind of shower heads that actually clean and toilets that actually flush.  Al Gore looks to the average American the way American greens look to poor people in the third world: hypocritically demanding that others accept permanently lower standards of living than those the activists propose for themselves.
 It's way past time for Mr. Gore to get religion.

Saturday, October 9, 2010

When Faced With Questions Most Serious, What Does One Do?

If you are an old school scientist, one who has swam in the deep waters of rigorous science, and one who sees those same waters being polluted with influences that undermine the cause of science?  You pen a letter that will carry the weight of a battleship anchor with those similarly focused on the rigors of science and the weight of a feather for those who are willing to compromise their profession for wealth and relative fame.




When I first joined the American Physical Society sixty-seven years ago it was much smaller, much gentler, and as yet uncorrupted by the money flood (a threat against which Dwight Eisenhower warned a half-century ago). Indeed, the choice of physics as a profession was then a guarantor of a life of poverty and abstinence---it was World War II that changed all that. The prospect of worldly gain drove few physicists.


....


So a few of us tried to bring science into the act (that is, after all, the alleged and historic purpose of APS), and collected the necessary 200+ signatures to bring to the Council a proposal for a Topical Group on Climate Science, thinking that open discussion of the scientific issues, in the best tradition of physics, would be beneficial to all, and also a contribution to the nation. I might note that it was not easy to collect the signatures, since you denied us the use of the APS membership list. We conformed in every way with the requirements of the APS Constitution, and described in great detail what we had in mind---simply to bring the subject into the open.


To our amazement, Constitution be damned, you declined to accept our petition, but instead used your own control of the mailing list to run a poll on the members' interest in a TG on Climate and the Environment. You did ask the members if they would sign a petition to form a TG on your yet-to-be-defined subject, but provided no petition, and got lots of affirmative responses. (If you had asked about sex you would have gotten more expressions of interest.) There was of course no such petition or proposal, and you have now dropped the Environment part, so the whole matter is moot. (Any lawyer will tell you that you cannot collect signatures on a vague petition, and then fill in whatever you like.) The entire purpose of this exercise was to avoid your constitutional responsibility to take our petition to the Council.


As of now you have formed still another secret and stacked committee to organize your own TG, simply ignoring our lawful petition.


APS management has gamed the problem from the beginning, to suppress serious conversation about the merits of the climate change claims. Do you wonder that I have lost confidence in the organization?


....


I want no part of it, so please accept my resignation. APS no longer represents me, but I hope we are still friends.



I hope they remain friends, too.  For apparently the APS is no longer concerned with being scientists.

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Lack Of Facts Undermine A Theory

The more we dig, the less substance we find.  In this case we have partisan speculation that is part of a fund raising campaign that gets sucked into a formal international report as "peer reviewed" evidence.  That formal report is then presented as the ultimate proof of an urgent crisis; documented, peer reviewed, above reproach "proof".

When called on the error, the people that published the report acknowledge that they have no data but continue to suggest that the chances of the phenomenon occurring are "very high".

And people wonder why folks like me are skeptical regarding the theory of anthropogenic global warming.

This is not the first time that a closer look at "the science" has indicated a lack of rigorous "science".


The report read: "Glaciers in the Himalaya are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate."

However, glaciologists find such figures inherently ludicrous, pointing out that most Himalayan glaciers are hundreds of feet thick and could not melt fast enough to vanish by 2035 unless there was a huge global temperature rise. The maximum rate of decline in thickness seen in glaciers at the moment is two to three feet a year and most are far lower.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Climategate......Questions Remain Unanswered

Some time ago, an anonymous individual released emails and computer model coding that suggested that climate researchers that University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit had been less than "scientific" in their research.  Investigating committees were appointed.  The results are out....and disappointing.


When the Climategate e-mails were released last year, the evidence of misconduct by the scientists involved was so strong that the climate establishment was forced to commission a series of tribunals. Yet the conclusions of those inquiries are as specious as the science they were supposed to investigate. By asking the wrong questions -- or not asking them at all -- they have failed to advance the climate debate one iota.


...


Yet the hearings did not include testimony from the most severe critics of the hockey stick graphic, such as Canadians Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, who could have explained exactly why the e-mails did suggest impropriety.


...


Further, the inquiry failed to ask the most basic questions of the CRU scientists, such as whether Professor Phil Jones had actually deleted inconvenient e-mails. Britain's freedom of information office said that the Cimategate e-mails provided the most cogent evidence imaginable that there had been efforts to avoid FOI requirements, yet the Muir Russell review did not investigate this appropriately.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Is It A Little Warm In Here

What is one way to have four independent temperature data sets support the same conclusion regarding anthropogenic global warming?  To have three of the four data sets not be independent.

If the underlying data is questionable....and I believe that it is.....then the conclusions based on the data are equally questionable.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Trust In Science

David Harsanyi has a column where he observes that the tables have turned.  It was formerly the case that those of us skeptical of theories suggesting the climate change was the result of human activities were questioned regarding our commitment to science.  It was alleged that we were uneducated, anti-science and perhaps even anti-intellectual.

With the recent revelations regarding the scientifically unsupported conclusions in the IPCC's 2007 report on climate change.....as well as the discovery of scientific malfeasance at the CRU and other centers of climate study.....we now see that the shoe is on the other foot.

Real science demands transparency.  Yet the people advocating on behalf of human induced climate change hide their data and all of their manipulations of that data.

Real science demands an independent review and verifiable results.  Yet we now know that half a dozen of the most explosive conclusions made by the IPCC were based on non-peer reviewed publications and sources.

In my experience, real science thrives on conflict.  It is only through a process of public vetting, testing, and review that we eventually arrive at theories that accurately describe our world.  Inaccurate theories are of little use to almost everyone except those that promote them.

These people have abandoned science.  We need them to return to science and leave the politics and public policy to the public.

A parallel thought that I've seen expressed elsewhere is that given that all these people considered anthropogenic climate change to be such a crisis, why aren't they relieved to learn that the data doesn't support that conclusion?  You would think that avoiding the dire circumstances they described would bring relief rather than frustration.