Fun With Numbers - Hugo Version

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Posted on : 5/23/2017 04:28:00 PM | By : Dann | In : ,

A discussion over at File 770 has recently included a bit of statistical analysis.  My statistics background is pretty mediocre.  And it has been a while since I've had to actively use any of the four years of calculus that I took in college.

So I cheated and used MSExcel.  The question I raised was how has Hugo attendance changed in relation to the recent Sad Puppies campaigns.

My point is illustrated thusly:



The Orange line includes all paid membership from Worldcon 36 up through and including Worldcon 71.  The Blue line has the same starting point and runs up through Worldcon 75.  A linear regression trend line has been added for both.  I extended the trendlines for illustration purposes.

I think it is clear that the trend through Worldcon 71 was running slightly negative.  It is now running slightly positive.

The raw data comes from JJ's compiliation.

I disagree with nominating works that one has not read/viewed/heard.  So the point is not an endorsement of any of the SP tactics.  The ends do not justify the means.

For anyone interested in the trend line data, this is what was spit out of Excel.

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If we compare a straight linear regression of the data from WC38-71 and from WC38-75, we see a shift from a negative trend denoted by a slope (m) of -11.2 to a positive trend (+44.4)

WC38-71
y = -11.201x + 5875.9   R² = 0.0045
WC38-75
y = 42.426x + 5221.6   R² = 0.0541

Making the same comparison over a longer time frame (WC28-71 and WC28-75) we see a similar upward/positive trend.

WC28-71
y = 70.864x + 3398.5   R² = 0.1989
WC28-75
y = 93.776x + 3044.8   R² = 0.3105

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